On the revised assumptions, the National-ACT-NZ First coalition governs alone in — of — simulated special-vote counts. Opportunity holds the balance of power in the other —. Late enrolment by young voters makes this year's specials more left-leaning than the first model assumed. Official results are due on 27 November.
National, ACT and NZ First have a majority on their own.
An exact tie. The coalition can only govern with Opportunity, and Labour can't govern even with it.
Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity have a majority. Opportunity could choose either side.
The two scenarios above combined: no majority without Opportunity.
What changed from the first model: the domestic special-vote lean is now — of its historical level, up from —, because late enrolment moved earlier rather than disappearing. — of specials are assumed to count, down from —, because more are expected to be thrown out. Together these take the coalition's chance of governing alone from — to —.
On the preliminary count National won — electorates, but its party vote only entitles it to — seats. Te Pāti Māori won — electorates on an entitlement of —. Those — overhang seats take the House to —, so a majority is —. The coalition holds —. Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity hold —.
Because National is in overhang, its seat count is simply the number of electorates it wins. Every electorate it loses on specials costs the coalition a seat and shrinks the House by one. Te Pāti Māori works the same way. National's party vote still matters, but through the size of the House: if specials cut its entitlement by a seat, that seat goes to another party while National keeps its electorates, so the House grows by one.
About — special votes are still to be counted, — of them from overseas, compared with — counted in 2023. Advance voting rose to — of ordinary votes from — in 2023, but those — advance votes are ordinary votes and are already in the preliminary count. Only the specials are still to come.
On 30 September, — of an estimated — eligible 18-24-year-olds were enrolled. By 29 October the rate had reached —, about — people, or — more young voters. That is — of the — rise in total enrolment over the same period, and the rate kept climbing after the 25 October deadline as forms were processed.
Anyone who enrolled after the roll was printed had to cast a special vote. Under the 2023 rules, many of these voters would have enrolled during voting instead: — people enrolled or updated their details during the 2023 voting period, — of them on election day. This year that effort happened before 25 October, so the late-enrolling, left-leaning slice of the specials is bigger than the first model assumed.
The counterweight: the Electoral Commission expected about — specials to be disallowed this year, around five times the usual number, mostly from people who turned up without being enrolled. They are inside the special-vote estimate but won't count, and they probably lean further left than the average special. So the — valid setting is, if anything, slightly generous to the left.
30 September is from the Commission's monthly statistics (hollow point). 22-29 October are its daily snapshots, which it says are not final and may be revised along with the eligible-population estimate.
Three things decide almost every run: Wairarapa, Hamilton East and NZ First's last list seat. NZ First drops to 11 in — of runs. Labour takes Wairarapa in — and Hamilton East in —. When National holds both marginals (— of runs), Labour never gets there. When Labour takes Wairarapa and NZ First drops, Labour could form a government — of the time.
Each cell shows the share of all runs with that combination, then how those runs split across the three scenarios. Te Tai Tokerau and Opportunity's extra seat vary within each cell.
Only races that change a party's seat total matter. The last chance column assumes the Hamilton East Labour candidate's figure of — specials there, against the model's —.
| Seat | Leads now | Margin | Could flip to | Chance it flips | With HE 8,000 | Effect on seats |
|---|
Each run lands in one combination of events, and adding the combinations up gives the headline numbers. The two biggest routes to a Labour government are National losing one marginal while NZ First drops and National's entitlement slips (— of runs), and National losing both marginals while NZ First drops (—). The most common single outcome is National holding both while NZ First drops, which leaves the coalition with a one-seat majority (—).
“Holds both” and “loses one” refer to Wairarapa and Hamilton East. “Entitlement drops” means National's party-vote entitlement falls by a seat. Grey figures are the coalition's seats and the House size.
The coalition's seats are —, minus each National electorate lost, minus NZ First's lost seat. The House is —, minus each National electorate lost, minus one if the Greens take Te Tai Tokerau, plus one if National's entitlement drops. A majority is half the House plus one, rounded down. That rule matches all but a handful of runs.
These events aren't independent. Each run draws one set of special votes, and that draw drives all of them. National's entitlement drops in — of runs where it holds both marginals, — where it loses one and — where it loses both. NZ First's seat is only loosely tied to the marginals, because it depends on the nationwide vote.
What each event does to the coalition's seats and the size of the House, and how often it happens
| Event | Coalition | House | Chance |
|---|
Opportunity holds the balance whenever the coalition lacks a majority on its own: — of runs. In the tie world (—), National can only govern with Opportunity, but Labour has no majority even with it. In the Labour-could-govern world (—), Opportunity can choose either side, which gives it the most leverage.
What has to be true:
National was on — at the preliminary count. Runs grouped by National's final share.
| National's final share | Share of runs | Opportunity holds the balance | Entitlement drops |
|---|
The size of the House matters as much as the coalition's total. The same number of coalition seats can be a majority, a tie or opposition, depending on how many overhang seats survive.
Share of simulations. Colour shows which scenario each combination produces, and darker means more likely.
The model's median has the Greens up —, National —, NZ First — and Opportunity —, with Labour at —. Specials are a smaller share of the vote than in 2023, so the shifts are smaller.
2023 actual change against the 2026 projected median
Projected final vote is the median, with the 10th-90th percentile range below it.
| Party | Prelim % | Final % | Prelim seats | Expected seats | Gains a seat | Loses a seat |
|---|
The biggest judgement call is still how left-leaning this year's domestic specials will be. At — of the historical lean the coalition governs alone — of the time. At — it's —. Going back to 2008 for the templates lowers Opportunity's chance to —. But 2008 and 2011 were National landslide years with fewer and less left-leaning specials, so the central case leaves them out.
| Assumptions | Alone | Needs Opp. | Labour | Opp. holds balance | Wairarapa flips | Ham. East flips |
|---|
Domestic special-vote lean as a share of the historical lean, at the central valid share
Weight is how often each year was drawn as the template.
| Pattern of | Weight | Alone | Needs Opp. | Labour | Opp. holds balance |
|---|
National's share of special votes has been below its share of ordinary votes in every election since 2008, and the Greens' has always been above. In Labour-v-National seats, specials moved the margin towards Labour every time, but the size of that swing varied more than fourfold between elections.
Nationwide party vote, official counts
Votes, by seat and year. Above zero means specials favoured Labour.
| Assumption | Setting | Basis | If it's wrong |
|---|
Model: — Monte Carlo runs at the central settings. Built 8 November 2026.